Responding to COVID-19: insight, support and guidance

Future Resources Model

The CIPFA Future Resources Model aims to provide a relatively simple model for projecting local authority financial resources forward to 2025 underpinned by robust assumptions informed by the Institute's expertise

The next 18 months hold a growing level of uncertainty for local government finance - with three major fiscal events (two Budgets and a Spending Review), two technical reforms to the finance system (the Fair Funding Review and implementation of 75% Business Rates Retention), and at least one important policy announcement in the largest area of local government spending - adult social care - that will shape the medium term funding outlook for local government into the mid-2020s. 

As the “cliff edge” of 2020 approaches, finance officers responsible for setting budgets and Medium Term Financial Strategies (MTFSs) must make difficult choices based on a number of assumptions. The need for models and tools that can help in medium term financial planning has never been so important.

The model is for all English local authorities including: Counties; Districts; Unitary Authorities; Metropolitan Districts; London Boroughs; Fire and Rescue Authorities; Police and Crime Commissioners; National Park Authorities; Waste Disposal Authorities; and Combined Authorities.

The model projects the seven major income streams found within the General Fund Revenue Account Outturns (RO returns) published annually by MHCLG:
Council Tax
Business Rates
Grant Income
Investment Income
Sales, Fees and Charges
Other Income


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